OPEC raises Russia’s oil output forecast to 11.41 mln bpd for 2019

MOSCOW, Oct 10 (PRIME) -- OPEC increased the 2019 forecast for liquid hydrocarbon production in Russia by 10,000 barrels per day to 11.41 million barrels per day, and retained the 2020 forecast at 11.5 million barrels per day, the organization said in a monthly report on Thursday.

The OPEC states decreased oil production by 1.318 million barrels a day in September to 28.49 million barrels a day, mostly thanks to a fall in production in Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iraq and Iran, while overfulfillment of the OPEC+ oil output cut deal jumped to 174% in August following drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s key crude installations.

Commercial reserves of oil in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) exceeded their 5-year average by 11 million barrels and amounted to 2.937 billion barrels in August, rising by 85 million barrels as compared with July 2018, according to preliminary data.

OPEC decreased its forecast for the growth of oil supply in 2019 by the states outside the cartel by 160,000 barrels per day to 1.82 million barrels per day, and reduced the 2020 forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 2.2 million barrels per day.

The organization decreased its forecast for oil demand growth in 2019 to 0.98 million barrels per day, and retained the 2020 forecast at 1.08 million barrels per day. Global demand for oil is seen at 99.8 million barrels per day in 2019 and 100.88 million barrels per day in 2020.

In November 2016, OPEC and non-OPEC states including Russia first agreed to reduce their oil output to rebalance the market. In December 2018, the states decided to cut production by an additional 800,000 barrels per day for OPEC and 400,000 barrels per day for non-OPEC states, including 228,000 barrels per day for Russia, from the level of October 2018. In July, they prolonged the deal until April 2020.

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